Spatial characteristics of bicycle–motor vehicle crashes in Christchurch, New Zealand: A case-control approach

Thomas Williams

Lincoln University

Crile Doscher

Lincoln University

Shannon Page

Lincoln University

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5198/jtlu.2018.1147

Keywords: Bicycle motor vehicle accident, accident probability, spatial characteristics, land use, GIS, case-control study


Abstract

This paper aims to examine the risk of bicycle-motor vehicle crashes occurring on a network-wide level in Christchurch, New Zealand, based on the spatial characteristics present in the road environment. To achieve this, logistic regression was undertaken with a binary dependent variable (crash/non-crash) using a case-control strategy, with case sites being locations of reported crashes, while control sites were sampled from the road network in proportion to where people cycle. Due to the uncertainty of cycling flows in Christchurch, four logistic regression models were undertaken based on different route selection preferences. The results identified that the odds of a crash increased across all four models due to the presence of driveways or intersections, identifying that these characteristics are associated with an increase in crash risk. All of the models identified that the risk of a crash decreases with the presence of on-road cycle lanes, while crash risk due to the presence of specific planning zones or road classification varied across all of the models.

Author Biography

Thomas Williams, Lincoln University

Master of Applied Science (Transport and Environmental Management)

References

Aertsens, J., de Geus, B., Vandenbulcke, G., Degraeuwe, B., Broekx, S., De Nocker, L., Liekens, I., Mayeres, I., Meeusen, R., Thomas, I., Torfs, R., Willems, H., & Int Panis, L. (2010). Commuting by bike in Belgium, the costs of minor accidents. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 42(6), 2149–2157. doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2010.07.008

Aultman-Hall, L., & Kaltenecker, M. G. (1999). Toronto bicycle commuter safety rates. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 31(6), 675–686. doi.org/10.1016/S0001-4575(99)00028-7

Bertolini, L., & le Clercq, F. (2003). Urban development without more mobility by car? Lessons from Amsterdam, a multimodal urban region. Environment and Planning A, 2003(35), 575–589. doi.org/10.1068/a3592

Bíl, M., Bílová, M., & Müller, I. (2010). Critical factors in fatal collisions of adult cyclists with automobiles. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 42(6), 1632–1636. doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2010.04.001

Chimba, D., Emaasit, D., & Kutela, B. (2012). Likelihood parameterization of bicycle crash injury severities. Journal of Transportation Technologies, 2012(2), 213–219. doi.org/10.4236/jtts.2012.23023

Christchurch City Council. (2016). Christchurch city plan. Retrieved from https://cityplan.ccc.govt.nz/pages/plan/book.aspx

Christchurch City Council. (2012). Road level classification list. Retrieved from http://resources.ccc.govt.nz/files/roadlevelclassificationlist.pdf

Christchurch City Council. (2011). Posted speed limits. Christchurch, New Zealand.

Christchurch City Council. (2008). 2008 cycling map [hard copy]. Christchurch, New Zealand.

Christchurch City Council. (n.d.). Proposed district plan: Appendix 7.12. Retrieved from http://www.proposeddistrictplan.ccc.govt.nz/common/user/contentlink.aspx?HID=24754

Cycling Safety Panel. (2014). Safer journeys for people who cycle: Cycling safety panel final report and recommendations. Retrieved from http://www.saferjourneys.govt.nz/assets/Safer-journeys-files/Cycling-safety-panel-final-report.pdf

City of Copenhagen. (2009). Economic evaluation of cycle projects—methodology and unit prices. Copenhagen: City of Copenhagen.

de Geus, B., Vandenbulcke, G., Int Panis, L., Thomas, I., Degraeuwe, B., Cumps, E., Aertsens, J., Torfs, R., & Meeusen, R. (2012). A prospective cohort study on minor accidents involving commuter cyclists in Belgium. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 45, 683–693. doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2011.09.045

Dill, J., & McNeil, N. (2014). Four types of cyclists? Examination of typology for better understanding of bicycling behavior and potential. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2387(1), 129–138. doi.org/10.3141/2387-15

Eckhardt, N., & Thomas, I. (2005). Spatial nested scales for road accidents in the periphery of Brussels. IATSS Research 29(1), 66–78. doi.org/10.1016/S0386-1112(14)60120-5

Elvik, R. (2008). The non-linearity of risk and the promotion of environmentally sustainable transport. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 41, 849–855.

Ewing, R., Meakins, G., Hamidi, S., & Nelson, A. C. (2014). Relationship between urban sprawl and physical activity, obesity, and morbidity—Update and refinement. Health and Place, 26, 11–126. doi.org/10.1016/j.healthplace.2013.12.008

Frumkin, H., Frank, L. D., & Jackson R. B. (2004). Urban sprawl and public health: Designing, planning, and building for healthy communities. Washington, DC: Island Press.

Grimes, D., & Schulz, K. (2005). Compared to what? Finding controls for case–control studies. The Lancet, 365, 1429–1433.

Hels, T., & Orozova-Bekkevold, I. (2007). The effect of roundabout design features on cyclist crash rate. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 39(2), 300–307. doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2006.07.008

Herslund, M., & Jorgensen, N. (2003). Looked-but-failed-to-see-errors in traffic. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 35(6), 885–891. doi.org/10.1016/S0001-4575(02)00095-7

Jacobsen, P. (2003). Safety in numbers: More walkers and bicyclists, safer walking and bicycling. Injury Prevention, 9(3), 205–209. doi.org/10.1136/ip.9.3.205

Isaksson-Hellman, I. (2012). A study of bicycle and passenger car collisions based on insurance claims data. Annals of Advances in Automotive Medicine/Annual Scientific Conference, 56, 3–12.

Kim, J.-K., Kim, S., Ulfarsson, G. F., & Porrello, L. A. (2007). Bicyclist injury severities in bicycle–motor vehicle accidents. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 39(2), 238–251. doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2006.07.002

Koh, P. P., & Wong, Y. D. (2013). Influence of infrastructural compatibility factors on walking and cycling route choice. Journal of Environmental Psychology, 36(2013), 202–213. doi.org/10.1016./j.jenvp.2013.08.001

Kuzmyak, R. (2012). Land use and traffic congestion. Federal Highway Administration Report, FHWA-AZ-12-618. Retrieved from https://www.azdot.gov/docs/default-source/planning/az618.pdf?sfvrsn=2

Li, L., Zhu, L.,& Sui, D. Z. (2007). A GIS-based Bayesian approach for analyzing spatial–temporal patterns of intra-city motor vehicle crashes. Journal of Transport Geography, 15(4), 274–285. doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2006.08.005

Land Information New Zealand [LINZ]. (2011). New Zealand street address (electoral) points. Retrieved from https://data.linz.govt.nz/layer/779-nz-street-address-electoral

Loo, B. P., & Tsui, K. L. (2010). Bicycle crash casualties in a highly motorized city. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 42(6), 1902–1907. doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2010.05.011

Lord, D., & Mannering, F. (2010). The statistical analysis of crash-frequency data: A review and assessment of methodological alternatives. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 44(5), 291–305. doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2010.02.001

Loidl, M., Wallentin., G., Wendel., R., & Zagel, B. (2016). Mapping bicycle crash risk patterns on the local scale. Safety 2(3) 17. doi:10.3390/safety2030017

Ministry of Transport [MOT]. (2014). Cyclists: 2014. Retrieved from http://www.transport.govt.nz/assets/Uploads/Research/Documents/Cycling-2014.pdf

Nielsen, T. A. S., Olafsson, A. S., Carstensen, T. A., & Skov-Petersen, H. (2013). Environmental correlates of cycling: Evaluating urban form and location effects based on Danish micro-data. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 22, 40–44. doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2013.02.017

New Zealand Transport Agency. (2014a). Crash data for all of New Zealand 2000 onwards. Retrieved from http://www.nzta.govt.nz/resources/crash-analysis-system-data/index.html

New Zealand Transport Agency. (2014b). Guide for the interpretation of coded crash reports from the Crash Analysis System (CAS). Retrieved from http://www.nzta.govt.nz/assets/resources/guide-to-coded-crash-reports/docs/guide-to-coded-crash-reports.pdf

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development [OECD]. (2013). Cycling, health and safety. Paris: ITF-OECD Working Group on Cycling Safety.

Parsons, J., & Koorey, G. (2013). The effect of cycle lanes on cycle numbers and safety. Proceedings from the IPENZ Transportation Group Conference, Dunedin, New Zealand, April 2013. Retrieved from http://conf.hardingconsultants.co.nz/workspace/uploads/koorey-glen-ipenztg2013-t-5191b73135b7e.pdf

Parkin, J., & Meyers, C. (2010). The effect of cycle lanes on the proximity between motor traffic and cycle traffic. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 42(1), 159–165. doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2009.07.018

Pucher, J., & Buehler., R. (2008). Making cycling irresistible: Lessons from the Netherlands, Denmark and Germany. Transport Reviews, 37(6), 495–528. doi.org/10.1080/01441640701806612

Rabl, A., & de Nazelle, A. (2012). Benefits of shift from car to active transport. Transport Policy, 19(1), 121–131. doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2011.09.008

Räsänen, M., & Summala, H. (1998). Attention and expectation problems in bicycle–car collisions: An in-depth study. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 30(5), 657–666. doi.org/10.1016/S0001-4575(98)00007-4

Reyonlds, C. C., Harris, A. M., Teschke, K., Cription, P. A., & Winters, M. (2009). The impact of transportation infrastructure on bicycling injuries and crashes: A review of the literature. Environmental Health, 8, 47. Retrieved from http://www.ehjournal.net/content/8/1/47

Rietveld, P., & Daniel, V. (2004). Determinants of bicycle use: Do municipal policies matter? Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 38(7), 531–550. doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2004.05.003

Roberts, P. (2012) Christchurch strategic cycle model. Christchurch, New Zealand: Quality Transport Planning.

Roberts, P. J. (2014). Cycle demand—planning for tomorrow. 2 Walk 2 Cycle National Conference, Nelson, New Zealand. Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Paul_Roberts32/publication/303858672_CYCLE_DEMANDPLANNING_FOR_TOMORROW/links/5758cfde08aed88462068124/CYCLE-DEMAND-PLANNING-FOR-TOMORROW.pdf

Schepers, J. P., Heinen, E., Methorst, P., & Wegman, F. (2013b). Road safety and bicycle usage impacts of unbundling vehicular and cycle traffic in Dutch urban networks. European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research, 13(3), 221–238. Retrieved from https://www.ejtir.tbm.tudelft.nl

Schepers, J. P., Hagenzieker, M., Methorst, R., van Wee, B., & Wegman, F. (2013a). A conceptual framework for road safety and mobility applied to cycling safety. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 62, 331–340. doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2013.03.032

Schepers, J. P., Kroeze, P. A., Sweers, W., and Wüst, J. C. (2011). Road factors and bicycle–motor vehicle crashes at unsignalized priority intersections. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 43(3), 853–861. doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2010.11.005

Statistics New Zealand. (2013). Commuting patterns in greater Christchurch: Trends from the Census of Population and Dwellings 2006 and 2013. Retrieved from http://www.stats.govt.nz/Census/2013-census/profile-and-summaryreports/commutingpatternschch/Commuting_and_modes_of_transpo.aspx#car

Stewart, K., & McHale, A. (2014). Cycle Lanes: Their effect on driver distances in urban areas. Transport 29(3), 307–316. doi.org/10.3846/16484142.2014.953205

Teschke, K., Harris, M. A., Reynolds, C. C., Winters, M., Babul, S., Chipman, M., Cusimano, M. D., Brubacher, J. R., Hunte, G., Friedman, S. M., Monro, M., Shen, H., Vernich, L., & Cripton, P. A. (2012). Route infrastructure and the risk of injuries to bicyclists: A case-crossover study. American Journal of Public Health, 102(12), 2336–2343. doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2012.300762

Transport for London (2017) Cynemon—cycling network model for London, presentation by Aled Davies to Cycling@Teatime, March 2017. https://www.ucl.ac.uk/transport-institute/pdfs/Davies_slides

Vandenbulcke, G., Dujardin, C., Thomas, I., de Geus, B., Degraeuwe, B., Meeusen, M., & Int Panis, L., (2011). Cycle commuting in Belgium: Spatial determinants and ‘re-cycling’ strategies. Transportation Research Part A, 45, 118–137 doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2010.11.004

Vandenbulcke, G., Thomas, I., & Int Panis, L. (2014). Predicting cycling crash risk in Brussels: A spatial case–control approach. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 62, 341–357. doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2013.07.001

Wiersma, J., Bertolini, L., & Straatemeier, T. (2016). How does the spatial context shape conditions for car dependency? An analysis of the differences between and within regions in the Netherlands. Journal of Transport and Land Use, 9(3), 35–55. Retrieved from https://www.jtlu.org/index.php/jtlu/article/viewFile/583/812

Wang, Y., & Nihan, N. L. (2004). Estimating the risk of collisions between bicycles and motor vehicles at signalized intersections. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 36(3), 313–321. doi.org/10.1016/S0001-4575(03)00009-5

Wallentin, G., & Loidl, M. (2015). Agent-based bicycle traffic model for Salzburg city. GI_Forum ‒ Journal for Geographic Information Science, 1, 558–566 doi.org/10.1553/giscience2015s558

Wallentin, G., and Loidl, M. (2016). Bicycle-bicycle accidents emerge from encounters: An agent-based approach. Safety, 2(2) 14. doi.org/10.3390/safety2020014

Wegman, F., Zhang, F., & Dijkstra, A. (2012). How to make more cycling good for road safety? Accident Analysis and Prevention, 44(1), 19–29. doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.20

Ziemeke, D., Metzler, S., & Nagel, K. (2017). Modelling bicycle traffic in an agent-based simulation. Procedia, 109C, 923–928. doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2017.05.424