Land-use transport models for climate change mitigation and adaptation planning

Alistair Ford

Newcastle University

http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8081-4239

Richard Dawson

Professor, School of Engineering, Newcastle University

Phil Blythe

Professor, School of Engineering, Newcastle University

Stuart Barr

Professor, School of Engineering, Newcastle University

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5198/jtlu.2018.1209

Keywords: planning, climate change, sustainability, mitigation, adaptation, integrated assessment


Abstract

The adoption of the Paris Agreement has committed the world to limiting anthropogenic climate change to 2°C above preindustrial levels, adapting to climate risks, and fostering climate resilience. Given the high proportion of global emissions released by cities and the concentration of people living in urban areas, this will require an unprecedented reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and transformation of the built environment on a yet unparalleled timescale. This poses substantial challenges for urban land-use and transport planning and for the use of land-use transport models (LUTM), which have historically been developed to test incremental changes rather than the rapid transformations implied by the Paris Agreement. This paper sets out the need for a new generation of tools to support the planning of a transition toward a low-carbon and resilient future, arguing that land-use and transport modeling tools are crucial to support this process. Recent developments in urban integrated assessment that link models of land-use and transport with other environmental models of greenhouse gas emissions and climate hazards show promise as platforms to assess the potential of urban policies in achieving the goals set out in the Paris Agreement. The paper concludes by defining challenges for the LUTM community if it is to achieve these goals. Crucial will be the adoption of new modeling approaches to better represent rapid social and technological change and to concurrently assess the resilience and sustainability implications of different land-use and transport policies. Simple models to explore multiple scenarios of change must be integrated with more sophisticated models for detailed design. Collaborative approaches will be necessary to allow multiple stakeholders to use these tools to explore urban futures and design radical urban transitions across multiple and interdependent urban sectors.

Author Biography

Alistair Ford, Newcastle University

Research Associate, School of Engineering and Institute for Sustainability

References

Acheampong, R. A., & Silva, E. (2015) Land use–transport interaction modeling: A review of the literature and future research directions. Journal of Transport and Land Use, 8(3), 11–38. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.5198/jtlu.2015.806

Adger, W. N., Hughes, T. P., Folke, C., Carpenter, S. R., & Rockström, J. (2005a). Social-ecological resilience to coastal disasters. Science, 309(5737), 1036–1039.

Adger, W. N., Arnell, N. W., & Tompkins, E. L. (2005b). Successful adaptation to climate change across scales. Global Environmental Change, 15(2), 77–86.

Allan, C., Whittaker, M., Rawcliffe, A., Dyer, R., Woodcock, A., & Bowden, D. (2016). Future potential for modal shift in the UK rail freight market, Department for Transport. Retrieved from http://www.arup.com/~/media/Publications/Files/Publications/F/Future_Potential_for_Modal_Shift_in_the_UK_Rail_Freight_Market.ashx

Anderson, K. (2015). Duality in climate science. Nature Geoscience, 8(12), 898–900. doi: 10.1038/ngeo2559

Barker, T., Foxon, T., & Scrieciu, S. S. (2008). Achieving the G8 50% target: Modeling induced and accelerated technological change using the macro-econometric model E3MG. Climate Policy, 8, S30–S45.

Batty, M. (2013). Visually-driven urban simulation: Exploring fast and slow change in residential location. Environment and Planning A, 45, 532–552.

Beddoe, R., Costanza, R., Farley, J., Garza, E., Kent, J., Kubiszewski, I., & Martinez, L. (2009). Overcoming system roadblocks to sustainability: The evolutionary redesign of worldviews, institutions, and technologies. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106(08), 2483–2489.

Bickler, G., Matthies, F., Hales, S., Marin, N. C., & World Health Organization. (2008). Heat-health action plans: Guidance. Retrieved from http://www.euro.who.int/__data/assets/pdf_file/0006/95919/E91347.pdf

Blythe, P. T. (2016a, October). The potential for mobility as a service—A UK government perspective. Proceedings of the 23rd World Congress on Intelligent Transport Systems, Melbourne, Australia.

Blythe, P. T. (2016b, October). Understanding the potential for big data in making transport smarter in cities. Lecture to the Alan Turing Institute, London, UK.

Brand, C., Cluzel, C., & Anable, J. (2017). Modeling the uptake of plug-in vehicles in a heterogeneous car market using a consumer segmentation approach. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 97, 121–136. doi: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2017.01.017

Bulkeley, H., & Betsill, M. (2005), Cities and climate change: Urban sustainability and global environmental governance. Oxon, UK: Routledge.

Buchanan, C. (1958). Mixed blessing: The motor car in Britain. London, UK: Leonard Hill.

Caparros-Midwood, D., Barr, S., & Dawson, R. (2015). Optimized spatial planning to meet long-term urban sustainability objectives. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 54, 154–164.

Caparros-Midwood, D., Barr, S., & Dawson, R. (2017). Spatial optimization of future urban development with regard to Climate risk and sustainability objectives. Risk Analysis. doi: 10.1111/risa.12777

Cairns, S., Atkins, S., & Goodwin, P. (2002), Disappearing traffic? The story so far. Proceedings of the Institute of Civil Engineers – Municipal Engineer, 151(1), 13–22.

Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy. (2015). Covenant of Mayors text. Retrieved from https://www.covenantofmayors.eu/IMG/pdf/covenantofmayors_text_en.pdf

Creutzig, F. (2014). How fuel prices determine public transport infrastructure, modal shares

and urban form. Urban Climate 10(1), 63-76.

Creutzig, F., Fernandez, B., Haberl, H., Khosla, R., Mulugetta, Y., & Seto, K. (2016). Beyond technology: Demand-side solutions for climate change mitigation. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 41(1), 173–198.

Cui, M., & Levinson, D. M. (2016). Full cost analysis of accessibility. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/11299/181544.

Dawson, R. J. (2011). Potential pitfalls on the transition to more sustainable cities and how they might be avoided. Carbon Management, 2(2), 175–188. doi: 10.4155/cmt.11.8

de Ridder, K., Lauwaet, D., & Maiheu, B. (2015). UrbClim—A fast urban boundary layer climate model. Urban Climate, 12, 21–48.

Ford, A., Barr, S., Dawson, R., & James, P. (2015). Transport accessibility analysis using GIS: Assessing sustainable transport in London. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 4(1), pp. 124–149.

Garcia-Sierra, M., van den Bergh, J.C., & Miralles-Guasch, C. (2015). Behavioral economics, travel behavior and environmental-transport policy. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 41, 288–305. doi: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2015.09.023

Gasper, R., Blohm, A., & Ruth, M. (2011). Social and economic impacts of climate change on the urban environment. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 3(3), 150–157.

GLA. (2011, October). Delivering London’s energy future: The mayor’s climate change mitigation and energy strategy. Retrieved from https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/gla_migrate_files_destination/Energy-future-oct11.pdf

GLA. (2015, June). The mayor’s climate change mitigation and energy annual report: 2013-2014, Greater London Authority. Retrieved from https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/gla_migrate_files_destination/CCMES%20annual%20report_2013-14_0.pdf

GLA. (2017, August). London environment strategy (Draft for public consultation). Retrieved from https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/8314_gla_les_online_single_page.pdf

Glenis, V., McGough, A. S., Kutija, V., Kilsby, C., & Woodman, S. (2013). Flood modeling for cities using Cloud computing. Journal of Cloud Computing: Advances, Systems and Applications, 2(1), 7.

Ghaffarzadegan, N., Lyneis, J., & Richardson, G. P. (2011). How small system dynamics models can help the public policy process. System Dynamics Review, 27(1), 22¬–44. doi: 10.1002/sdr.442

Hall, J. W., Dawson, R. J., Walsh, C. L., Barker, T., Barr, S. L., Batty, M., Bristow, A. L., Burton, A., Carney, S., Dagoumas, A., Evans, S., Ford, A.C., Glenis, V., Goodess, C.G., Harpham, C., Harwatt, H., Kilsby, C. G., Kohler, J., Jones, P., Manning, L., McCarthy, M., Sanderson, M., Tight, M. R., Timms, P. M., & Zanni, A. (2009). Engineering cities: How can cities grow whilst reducing emissions and vulnerability? Norwich, UK: The Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research.

Hallegatte, S., Henriet, F., & Corfee-Morlot, J. (2011). The economics of climate change impacts and policy benefits at city scale: A conceptual framework. Climatic Change, 104(1), 51–87.

Hargreaves, A. J. (2015). Representing the dwelling stock as 3D generic tiles estimated from average residential density. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 54, 280–300. doi: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2015.08.001

Hargreaves, A., Cheng, V., Deshmukh, S., Leach, M., & Steemers, K. (2017). Forecasting how residential urban form affects the regional carbon savings and costs of retrofitting and decentralized energy supply. Applied Energy, 186(3), 549–561. doi: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.02.095

Harlan, S. L., & Ruddell, D. M. (2011). Climate change and health in cities: Impacts of heat and air pollution and potential co-benefits from mitigation and adaptation. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 3(3), 126–134. doi: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2011.01.001

Hazeldine, T., Kollamthodi, S., Brannigan, C., Morris, M., & Deller, L. (2009). Market outlook to 2022 for battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, Report for UK Committee on Climate Change. Retrieved from https://www.theccc.org.uk/archive/aws2/docs/CH6%20-%20AEA%20-%20Market%20outlook%20to%202022%20for%20battery%20electric%20vehicles%20and%20plug-in%20hybrid%20electric%20vehicles.pdf

Heidrich, O., Ford, A., Alderson, D., Dawson, R., & Manning, D. (2015, July). UK climate change strategies in cities and the layers of cobalt supplies. Paper presented at the 8th biennial conference of the International Society for Industrial Ecology, Guildford, UK.

Heidrich, O., Reckien, D., Olazabal, M., Foley, A., Salvia, M., de Gregorio Hurtado, S., Orru, H., Flacke, J., Geneletti, D., Pietrapertosa, F., Hamann, J. P., Tiwary, A., Feliu, E., & Dawson, R. J. (2016). National climate policies across Europe and their impacts on cities strategies. Journal of Environmental Management, 168, 36–45.

Heidrich, O., Dawson, R. J., Walsh, C., & Reckien, D. (2013). Assessment of the climate preparedness of 30 urban areas in the UK. Climatic Change, 120(4), 771–784. doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-0846-9

Hickman, R., Ashiru, O., & Banister, D. (2010). Transport and climate change: Simulating the options for carbon reduction in London. Transport Policy, 17(2), 110–125. doi: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2009.12.002

Hunt, A., & Watkiss, P. (2011). Climate change impacts and adaptation in cities: A review of the literature. Climatic Change, 104(1), 13–49.

Hunt, J. D., Kriger, D. S., & Miller, E. J. (2005). Current operational urban land-use-transport modeling frameworks: A review. Transport Reviews, 25, 3, 329–376.

ICLEI. (2016). Climate change: Implications for cities. Retrieved from http://www.iclei.org/fileadmin/PUBLICATIONS/Brochures/IPCC_AR5_Cities_Summary_FINAL_Web.pdf

IEA. (2016). International Energy Agency global EV outlook 2016. Retrieved from https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/Global_EV_Outlook_2016.pdf

IEAG. (2014). A world that counts: Mobilizing data for the sustainable revolution, report by Independent Expert Advisory Group to United Nations secretary general. Retrieved from http://www.undatarevolution.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/A-World-That-Counts2.pdf

IFRC. (1999). Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment: A Federation Guide. Geneva, Switzerland: International Red Cross and Red Cross Societies (IFRC).

Jenkins, K., Hall, J., Glenis, V., Kilsby, C., McCarthy, M., Goodess, C., Smith, D., Malleson, N., & Birkin, M. (2014). Probabilistic spatial risk assessment of heat impacts and adaptations for London. Climatic Change, 124(1–2), 105–117.

Jin, Y. (2016, November). Personal communication at Symposium for the Integration of Land-Use and Transport Models, Raitenhaslach, Germany.

Jones, P. D., Kilsby, C. G., Harpham, C., Glenis, V., & Burton, A. (2010). UK Climate Projections Science Report: Projections of Future Daily Climate for the UK from the Weather Generator. London, UK: UK Climate Impacts Program.

Junankar, S., Lofsnaes, O., & Summerton, P. (2007, March). MDM-E3: A short technical description. Technical report, Cambridge Econometrics. Retrieved from http://www.camecon.com/

Kilsby, C. G., Jones, P. D., Burton, A., Ford, A. C., Fowler, H. J., Harpham, C., James, P., Smith, A., & Wilby, R. L. (2007) A daily weather generator for use in climate change studies. Environmental Modeling and Software, 22(12), 1705–1719.

Köhler, J., Whitmarsh, L., Nykvist, B., Schilperoord, M., Bergman, N., & Haxeltine, A. (2009). A transitions model for sustainable mobility. Ecological Economics, 68(12), 2985–2995.

Larson, W., Liu, F., & Yezer, A. (2012). Energy footprint of the city: Effects of urban land use and transportation policies. Journal of Urban Economics, 72(2–3),147–159.

Lavell, A. (2003). Local Level Risk Management: Concept and Practices. Quito, Ecuador: CEPRE-DENAC-UNDP.

Levinson, D. M., & Krizek, K. J. (2015). The End of Traffic and the Future of Transport. Seattle: Amazon Kindle Editions.

Levinson, D. (2016). Forecasting urban travel: Past, present and future, by D. Boyce & H. Williams. 2015. Cheltenham, U.K., & Northampton, Massachusetts: Edward Elgar. Journal of Regional Science, 56: 548–550. doi: 10.1111/jors.12273

Lovelace, R. (2016, September). Tools of the trade: Adapting 20th century transport models for 21st century challenges. Presentation given at Cycling and Society Symposium, Lancaster, UK. Retrieved from https://rpubs.com/RobinLovelace/213645

Lowry, I. S. (1964). Model of metropolis, memorandum RM-4035-RC. Santa Monica, CA: Rand Corporation.

McCollum, D. L., Wilson, C., Pettifor, H., Ramea, K., Krey, V., Riahi, K., Bertram, C., Lin, Z., Edelenbosch, O., & Fujisawa, S. (2017). Improving the behavioral realism of global integrated assessment models: An application to consumers’ vehicle choices. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 55(Supplement C), 322–342. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2016.04.003

Metcalfe, R., & Dolan, P. (2012). Behavioral economics and its implications for transport. Journal of Transport Geography, 24, 503–511. doi: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2012.01.019

Neaimeh, M., Wardle, R., Jenkins, A., Hill, G. A., Lyons, P., Yi, J., Huebner, Y., Blythe, P.T., & Taylor, P. (2015). A probabilistic approach to combining smart meter and electric vehicle charging data to investigate distribution network impacts. Applied Energy, 157, 688–698.

Olivier, J.G.J., Janssens-Maenhout, G., Muntean, M., & Peters, J. A. H. W. (2016). Trends in global CO2 emissions; 2016 report. The Hague: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, European Commission, Joint Research Centre.

Oppenheimer, M., M. Campos, R. Warren, J. Birkmann, G. Luber, B. O’Neill, & K. Takahashi, 2014: Emergent risks and key vulnerabilities. In C. B. Field, V. R. Barros, D. J. Dokken, K. J. Mach, M. D. Mastrandrea, T. E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K. L. Ebi, Y. O. Estrada, R. C. Genova, B. Girma, E. S. Kissel, A. N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P. R. Mastrandrea, & L. L. White (Eds.), Climate change 2014: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: Global and sectoral aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (pp. 1039-1099). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, and New York, NY.

Ostrom, E. (2010). Polycentric systems for coping with collective action and global environmental change. Global Environmental Change, 20(4), 550–557. doi: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.07.004

Panter, J., Heinen, E., Mackett, R., & Ogilvie, D. (2016). Impact of new transport infrastructure on walking, cycling, and physical activity. American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 50(2), e45-e53. doi: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.amepre.2015.09.021

Pregnolato, M., Ford, A., Robson, C., Glenis, V., Barr, S., & Dawson, R. J. (2016). Assessing urban strategies for reducing the impacts of extreme weather on infrastructure networks. Royal Society Open Science, 3(5), 160023.

Pregnolato, M., Ford, A., Wilkinson, S, & Dawson, R. (2017). The impact of flooding on road transport: A depth-disruption function. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment 55(Supplement C): 67–81.

Reckien, D., Flacke, J., Dawson, R. J., Heidrich, O., Olazabal, M., Foley, A., Hamann, J. J-P., Orru, H., Salvia, M., de Gregorio Hurtado, S., Geneletti, D., & Pietrapertosa, F. (2014). Climate change response in Europe: What’s the reality? Analysis of adaptation and mitigation plans from 200 urban areas in 11 countries. Climatic Change Letters, 122(1–2), 331–340. doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-0989-8

Revi, A., Satterthwaite, D. E., Aragón-Durand, F., Corfee-Morlot, J., Kiunsi, R., Pelling, M., Roberts, D. C., & Solecki, W. (2014). Urban areas. In C. B. Field, V. R. Barros, D. J. Dokken, K. J. Mach, M. D. Mastrandrea, T. E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K. L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R. C. Genova, B. Girma, E. S. Kissel, A. N. Levy, S. MacCracken, R.R. Mastrandrea & L.L. White (Eds), Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

Robinson, J. B. (1990). Futures under glass: A recipe for people who hate to predict. Futures, 22(8), 820–842.

Rockström, J., Gaffney, O., Rogelj, J., Meinshausen, M., Nakicenovic, N., & Schellnhuber, H. J. (2017). A roadmap for rapid decarbonization. Science, 355(6331), 1269. doi: 10.1126/science.aah3443

Rogelj, J., den Elzen, M., Höhne, N., Fransen, T., Fekete, H., Winkler, H., Meinshausen, M. (2016). Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2°C. Nature, 534(7609), 631–639. doi: 10.1038/nature18307

Rogers, C. D. F. (2015). The value of foresight and scenarios in engineering livable future cities. In Retrofitting Cities for Tomorrow’s World. Chichester, West Sussex, UK: Wiley Blackwell.

Rotmans, J., Kemp, R., & van Asselt, M. (2001). More evolution than revolution: Transition management in public policy. Foresight 3(1), 15–31.

Santos, G., Behrendt, H., Maconi, L., Shirvani, T., & Teytelboym, A. (2010). Part I: Externalities and economic policies in road transport. Research in Transportation Economics, 28(1), 2–45. doi: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.retrec.2009.11.002

Schwarze, B., Spiekermann, K., Wegener, M., Huber, F., Brosch, K., Reutter, O., Müller, M. (2017). Städte und Klimawandel: Ruhrgebiet 2050. Integriertes Modell Ruhrgebiet und Regionaler Modal Shift. Final report. Dortmund/Wuppertal, Germany: Spiekermann & Wegener Urban and Regional Research, University of Wuppertal, Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy.

Seto, K.C., Güneralp, B., & Hutyra, L. (2012). Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 109(40), 16083–16088.

Sims R., Schaeffer, R., Creutzig, F., Cruz-Núñez, X., D’Agosto, M., Dimitriu, D., Figueroa Meza, M. J., Fulton, L., Kobayashi, S., Lah, O., McKinnon, A., Newman, P., Ouyang, M., Schauer, J. J., Sperling, D., and Tiwari, G. (2014). Transport. In O. Edenhofer, R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, E. Farahani, S. Kadner, K. Seyboth, A. Adler, I. Baum, S. Brunner, P. Eickemeier, B. Kriemann, J. Savolainen, S. Schlömer, C. von Stechow, T. Zwickel & J. C. Minx (Eds.), Climate change 2014: Mitigation of climate change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press.

Spiers, J. (2015, February). Electric vehicles and critical metals, SETIS Magazine, European Commission. Retrieved from: https://setis.ec.europa.eu/setis-reports/setis-magazine/materials-energy/electric-vehicles-and-critical-metals-jamie-speirs

Stern, N. H., (2007). The economics of climate change: The Stern review. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

Tyndall Centre. (2016). Global carbon budget 2016. Retrieved from http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/sites/default/files/Infographics2016.pdf

UCLG. (2015, December). Paris City Hall Declaration. Retrieved from https://www.uclg.org/sites/default/files/climate_summit_final_declaration.pdf

UKCCC. (2013–December). Pathways to high penetration of electric vehicles. Report to UK Committee on Climate Change. Retrieved from https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/CCC-EV-pathways_FINAL-REPORT_17-12-13-Final.pdf

UNFCC. (2011). Assessing the costs and benefits of adaptation options: An overview of approaches. Retrieved from http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/publications/pub_nwp_costs_benefits_adaptation.pdf

UNFCC. (2015–February). Adoption of the Paris Agreement. Retrieved from https://unfccc.int/files/meetings/paris_nov_2015/application/pdf/paris_agreement_english_.pdf

UNISDR. (2009–May). Terminology on disaster risk reduction. Retrieved from http://www.unisdr.org/files/7817_UNISDRTerminologyEnglish.pdf

Walsh, C. L., Dawson, R. J., Hall, J. W., Barr, S. L., Batty, M., Bristow, A., Carney, S., Dagoumas, A., Ford, A. C., Harpham, C., Tight, M., Watters, H., & Zanni, A. (2011). Assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation in cities. Urban Design and Planning, 164(2), 75–84.

Walsh, C. L., Roberts, D., Dawson, R. J., Hall, J. W., Nickson, A., & Hounsome, R. (2013). Experiences of integrated assessment modeling in London and Durban. Environment and Urbanization, 25(2), 257–376. doi: 10.1177/0956247813501121

Wegener, M. (2008, August). SASI mode description, working paper. Retrieved from http://www.spiekermann-wegener.de/mod/pdf/AP_0801.pdf

Wegener, M. (2011). The IRPUD Model. Dortmund: Spiekermann & Wegener Urban and Regional Research. Retrieved from http://www.spiekermann-wegener.de/mod/pdf/AP_1101_IRPUD_Model.pdf

Whitelegg, J., Haq, G., Cambridge, H., & Vallack, H. (2010). Toward a zero carbon vision for UK transport. Stockholm, Sweden: Stockholm Environment Institute. Retrieved from https://www.sei-international.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-ProjectReport-Whitelegg-TowardsAZeroCarbonVisionForUKTransport-2010.pdf

Willows, R., Reynard, N., Meadowcroft, I., & Connell, R. (2003). Climate Adaptation: Risk, Uncertainty and Decision-Making, Part 2 (pp 41–87). Oxford, UK: Climate Impacts Program, Oxford, UK. Retrieved from http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/2969/1/N002969CR.pdf

Wilson, G. S., Millar, C., McLaren, C., Millar, E., Rockafella, J., & Poulos, G. (2015). What is the full cost of your commute? Moving forward. Discourse Media. Retrieved from http://movingforward.discoursemedia.org/costofcommute/