Assessing and integrating uncertainty into land-use forecasting

Hana Sevcikova; Mark Simonson; Michael Jensen

doi:10.5198/jtlu.2015.614

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Published

2015-03-16

Issue

Vol. 8 No. 3 (2015)

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Articles

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How to Cite

Sevcikova, H., Simonson, M., & Jensen, M. (2015). Assessing and integrating uncertainty into land-use forecasting. Journal of Transport and Land Use, 8(3). https://doi.org/10.5198/jtlu.2015.614

Assessing and integrating uncertainty into land-use forecasting

Hana Sevcikova

Puget Sound Regional Council University of Washington

Mark Simonson

Puget Sound Regional Council

Michael Jensen

Puget Sound Regional Council

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5198/jtlu.2015.614

Keywords: Uncertainty, Land Use Forecast, Bayesian Melding, UrbanSim, Agent-based Models, PSRC

Abstract

Uncertainty in land use and transportation modeling has received increasing attention in the past few years. However, methods for quantifying uncertainty in such models are usually developed in an academic environment and in most cases do not reach users of official forecasts, such as planners and policymakers. In this paper, we describe the practical application of a methodology called Bayesian melding and its integration into the land-use forecast published by the Puget Sound Regional Council, a metropolitan planning organization. The method allows practitioners to assess uncertainty about forecasted quantities, such as households, population, and jobs, for each geographic unit. Users are provided with probability intervals around forecasts, which add value to model validation, scenario comparison, and external review and comment procedures. Practical issues such as how many runs to use or assessing uncertainty for aggregated regions are also discussed.