Spatial characteristics of bicycle–motor vehicle crashes in Christchurch, New Zealand: A case-control approach

Thomas Williams, Crile Doscher, Shannon Page


This paper aims to examine the risk of bicycle-motor vehicle crashes occurring on a network-wide level in Christchurch, New Zealand, based on the spatial characteristics present in the road environment. To achieve this, logistic regression was undertaken with a binary dependent variable (crash/non-crash) using a case-control strategy, with case sites being locations of reported crashes, while control sites were sampled from the road network in proportion to where people cycle. Due to the uncertainty of cycling flows in Christchurch, four logistic regression models were undertaken based on different route selection preferences.

The results identified that the odds of a crash increased across all four models due to the presence of driveways or intersections, identifying that these characteristics are associated with an increase in crash risk. All of the models identified that the risk of a crash decreases with the presence of on-road cycle lanes, while crash risk due to the presence of specific planning zones or road classification varied across all of the models.


Bicycle motor vehicle accident, accident probability, spatial characteristics, land use, GIS, case-control study

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