Additional detail in aggregate integrated land-use models via simulating developer pro forma thinking
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5198/jtlu.2018.1189Abstract
This paper describes an enhancement to MetroScope, the land-use model component of an integrated model suite used to answer current- and next-generation policy questions facing Oregon Metro (the Portland regional planning organization) and other public agencies. The enhancement is designed to simulate more-detailed housing developer decision processes within an overall aggregate spatial equilibrium model (SEM) framework via a pro forma paradigm. The paper enumerates the policy questions that motivated the enhancement, discusses the integrated model framework, briefly reviews levels of detail available in existing models as context, and frames potential future research directions for additional decision process detail that would be helpful in the consumer modules of the model and potentially other SEMs currently in use.References
Anas, A. (1982). Residential location markets and urban transportation: Economic theory, econometrics and policy analysis with discrete choice models. New York: Academic Press.
Anas, A. (2013). A summary of the applications to date of RELU-TRAN, a microeconomic urban computable general equilibrium model. In Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 40, 959–970.
Anas, A., & Arnott, R. J. (1991). Dynamic housing market equilibrium with taste heterogeneity, idiosyncratic perfect foresight and stock conversions. Housing Economics, 1(1), 2– 32.
Anas, A., & Arnott, R. J. (1997). Taxes and allowances in a dynamic equilibrium model of urban housing market with a size-quality hierarchy. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 27, 547–580.
Anas, A., & Liu, Y. (2007). A regional economy, land-use, and transportation model (relu-tran): Formulation, algorithm design, and testing. Regional Science, 47(3), 415–455.
Calabrese, S., Epple, D., Romer, T., & Sieg, H. (2005). Local public good provision: Voting, peer effects, and mobility. Journal of Public Economics, 90, 959–981.
City of Portland. (2018). Systems development charges. Retrieved from https://www.portlandoregon.gov/bds/34186
Clarke, P., Davidson, P., & Thomas, A. (2008, October). Migrating four-step models to an activity based modelling framework in practice. Paper presented at the European Transport Conference, Leiden, Netherlands.
Conder, S., & Lawton, K. Alternative futures for integrated transportation and land use models contrasted with trend-Delphi models: Portland, Oregon, metro results. Transportation Research Board, 1805, 99–107.
Felsenstein, D., Axhausen, K. W., & Waddell, P. (2010). Land use-transportation modeling with UrbanSim: Experiences and progress, introduction to the special issue. Journal of Transport and Land Use, 3(2), 1–3.
Mokhtarian, P. L., & van Herick, D. (2016). Quantifying residential self-selection effects: A review of methods and findings from applications of propensity score and sample selection approaches. Journal of Transport and Land Use, 9(1), 7–26.
Oregon Metro. (2014). Urban growth report, appendix 5: Residential development trends. Retrieved from http://www.oregonmetro.gov/urban-growth-report
Puget Sound Regional Council. (2015). 2012 Land use forecast. Retrieved from https://www.psrc.org
Pendyala, R., Gardner, B., Hickman, M., Karthik, K., Noh, H., Waddell, P., Wang, L., You, D., & Yi-Chang, C. (2014). Integrated land-use-transport model system with dynamic time dependent activity-travel microsimulation. Transportation Research Record, 2303, 19–27.
Phelps-Goodman, E. (2016, July 18). Seattle demolitions bring displacement, not enough density. Crosscut. Retrieved from https://crosscut.com/2016/07/seattle-demolitionsbring-displacement-not-enough-density
Sieg, H., Banzhaf, H. S., Smith, V. K., & Walsh, R. (2004). Estimating the general equilibrium benefits of large changes in spatially delineated public goods. International Economic Review, 45(4), 1047–1077.
Simonson, M. (2017). Personal communication to the authors.
State of Oregon. Oregon revised statutes. Retrieved from https://www.oregonlaws.org/ors/197.296.
Waddell, P. (2013). Draft technical documentation: San Francisco Bay Area UrbanSim application. Technical report. Berkeley, CA: Institute of Urban and Regional Development, University of California, Berkeley.
Wang, L. (2013). A disaggregated real estate demand model with price formation for integrated land use and transportation modeling. Paper presented at the Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington, D.C.
Wegener, M. (2012). Applied models of urban land use, transport. In Network infrastructure and the urban environment: Advances in spatial systems modelling. Berlin: Springer Science & Business Media.
Zhang, W., & Kockelman, K. M. (2016). A dynamic land-use model with location externalities and zoning regulations. In Innovations in urban and regional systems: Contributions from GIS&T, spatial analysis and location modeling. New York: Springer.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Authors who publish with JTLU agree to the following terms: 1) Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial License 4.0 that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal. 2) Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal. 3) Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work.
