Temporal transferability of models of mode-destination choice for the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area
Keywords:Transferability, temporal, mode-destination choice
AbstractTransport planning relies extensively on forecasts of traveler behavior over horizons of 20 years and more. Implicit in such forecasts is the assumption that travelers’ tastes, as represented by the behavioral model parameters, are constant over time. In technical terms, this assumption is referred to as the "temporal transferability" of the models. This paper summarizes the findings from a literature review that demonstrates there is little evidence about the transferability of mode-destination models over typical forecasting horizons. The literature review shows a relative lack of empirical studies given the importance of the issue. To provide further insights and evidence, models of commuter mode-destination choice been developed from household interview data collected across the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area in 1986, 1996, 2001, and 2006. The analysis demonstrates that improving model specification improves the transferability of the models, and in general the transferability declines as the transfer period increases. The transferability of the level-of-service parameters is higher than transferability of the cost parameters, which has important implications when considering the accuracy of forecasts for different types of policy. The transferred models over-predict the key change in mode share over the transfer period—specifically, the shift from local transit to auto driver between 1986 and 1996—but under-predict the growth in commuting tour lengths over the same period.
Atherton, T. and M. Ben-Akiva (1976) Transferability and Updating of Disaggregate Travel Demand Models. . In Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 610, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington D.C., 12–18.
Badoe, D. and E. Miller (1995) Analysis of the Temporal Transferability of Disaggregate Work Trip Mode Choice Models. In Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 1493, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C., 1–11.
Ben-Akiva, M. and T. Atherton (1977) Methodology for Short-Range Travel Demand Predictions. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, 11, 1977, 224–261.
Ben-Akiva, M. (1981) Issues in Transferring and Updating Travel-Behaviour Models. In New Horizons in Travel-Behaviour Research (A. M. Stopher, P and W. Brög, eds.), Lexington Books, Lexington, 665–686.
Fox, J., A. Daly and B. Patruni (2009) Improving the Treatment of Cost in Large Scale Models, European Transport Conference, Noordwijkerhout, The Netherlands.
Fox, J, and S. Hess (2010) Review of Evidence for Temporal Transferability of Mode-Destination Models. Transportation Research Record, 2175, 74-83.
Gunn, H., (2001) Spatial and Temporal Transferability of Relationships between Travel Demand, Trip Cost and Travel Time. Transportation Research E, 37, 163–189.
Habib, K., J. Swait and S. Salem (2012). Investigating Structural Changes in Commuting Mode Choice Preferences with Repeated Cross-Sectional Travel Survey Data: The Contexts of Greater Toronto and Hamilton (GTHA) Area. 13th International Conference on Travel Behaviour Research, Toronto.
Hulchanski, D., L. Boume, M. Fair, R. Maaranen, R. Murdle and R. Walks
(2007). The Three Cities within Toronto: Income Polarizations among Toronto's Neighbourhoods. Cities Centre, University of Toronto.
Karasmaa, N. and M. Pursula (1997) Transferability Analysis of Disaggregate Choice Models. In Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 1607, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C., 38– 44.
Koppelman, F. and C. Wilmot (1982) Transferability Analysis of Disaggregate Choice Models. Transportation Research Record, 895, 18–24.
Lerman, R. (1981) A Comment on Interspatial, Intraspatial, and Temporal Transferability. In New Horizons in Travel-Behaviour Research (A. M. Stopher, P and W. Brög, eds.), Lexington Books, Lexington, 628–632.
McCarthy, P. (1982) Further Evidence on the Temporal Stability of Disaggregate Travel Demand Models. Transportation Research B, Vol. 16, No. 4, 263–278.
Parody, T (1977) Analysis of Predictive Qualities of Disaggregate Modal Choice Models. In Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 637, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C., 51–57.
Silman, L. (1981) The Time Stability of a Modal-Split model for Tel-Aviv. Environment and Planning A, 13, 751–762.
Statistics Canada (2003) Where Canadians Work and How They Get There. Minister of Industry, Ottawa.
Train, K. (1978) A Validation Test of a Disaggregate Mode Choice Model. Transportation Research, 12, 167–174.
Train, K. (1979) A Comparison of the Predictive Ability of Mode Choice Models with Various Levels of Complexity. Transportation Research A, 13, 11–16.
How to Cite
Authors who publish with JTLU agree to the following terms: 1) Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial License 4.0 that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal. 2) Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal. 3) Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work.